The NFL Draft starts tomorrow and it has some really head turning quarterbacks with big frames and strong arms. Two of the top five are former Heisman winners, and they’re the ones you don’t want to draft.
5.) Lamar Jackson
His ceiling is Michael Vick, his floor is Tim Tebow. After winning the Heisman Trophy two years ago, I feel that this kid has peaked. Super talented, but not an NFL QB. In college, you can run around and extend plays if you’re quick. In the NFL, there’s a timer before you’re sacked lunch. An average NFL offensive line is only going to allow you 3.5/4 seconds to let that bad boy rip. Trying to find film on Jackson unloading a bomb or a zip across the middle in 4 seconds is a tough task to complete.
Likes to run too much. Panics in the pocket. Too small. Not an accurate or strong arm. One anonymous NFL OC said “he will not be able to play QB in the NFL”. I agree and you should too. The best bet for Jackson is to learn the route tree and transition into a WR role like Terrelle Pryor. How many Michael Vick’s have you seen in the NFL since Michael Vick? Yep.
4.) Baker Mayfield
Not a fan. His ceiling is Case Keenum and his floor is Johnny Manziel. Another Heisman winner that I believe has peaked. Short, arrogant, police videos, likes to run around too much and definitely not a strong arm. Go back and watch the Georgia tape in the Rose Bowl. He ran 12 times for a whopping 1 yard gain. Georgia forced him to sit in the pocket and toss dimes. 23/35 for 287 yards and 2 TD’s vs 1 INT and a QBR of 52.0. Not bad, right? Go back and watch the tape. Notice how he had to extend the play in the pocket almost every play to deliver those numbers. NFL defenses simply won’t allow you to do that. Remember that timer? 3.5/4 seconds or you’re sacked lunch, crotch grabber.
3.) Josh Allen
6’5 225 with a strong, but inaccurate arm. His ceiling is Andrew Luck, his floor is Ryan Tannehill. Definitely has that NFL frame and after watching his combine workouts (hard to find Wyoming games on television), I noticed some inaccuracy with his ball location. Throwing behind receivers and sometimes leading them too far. Now, it’s nothing that can’t be tuned up or improved, but it did stick out to me. The level of competition that he faced at Wyoming was certainly nowhere near where you’d like it to be if you’re an NFL GM about to draft a quarterback. I do expect him to have a decent career in the NFL.
2.) Josh Rosen
6’4 220 with a really impressive arm. His ceiling is Brett Favre, his floor is also Ryan Tannehill. Very accurate and can rip it. Played against good defenses throughout his tenure at UCLA. Impressive numbers and stole the show during combine workouts. It was a toss up decision between 1 and 2 for me, so these Cali boys are going to be gems in the NFL.
1.) Sam Darnold
Ole Darnold. SC wild boy! SUPER strong arm. 6’3 221. NFL frame and NFL game, baby! Look for Sammy D to be the first QB off the board tomorrow. Really like this kid. Think his ceiling is Ben Roethlisberger and floor is Jimmy Garoppolo. His potential to be a great NFL QB is certainly worth investing in. Even if he’s not the next Big Ben, being Jimmy G ain’t so bad either. At worst, he will be a very good backup but I don’t see that happening. Toss dimes, Sammy D!